Interactive tool · Public debt
Where Gabon’s debt is heading by 2030: your turn
The model of our study, open to your own assumptions. It starts from the audit figure and draws thousands of possible futures for oil, growth, the exchange rate and interest rates.
The government’s choices
Start from a scenario of the study, then move the sliders.
Fiscal effort
Each year the State improves its balance excluding interest (revenue minus spending, without interest), up to a target level.
Negotiated budget aid
Loans from institutions (IMF, World Bank, AfDB…) at a reduced rate, replacing part of the borrowing at market prices.
Cost of market borrowing
A credible agreement, such as an IMF programme, can lower the rate lenders demand. The size of that cut is an assumption.
Unpaid bills
Late payments owed to firms and suppliers: 459.5 billion in the bulletin, 1,094.6 billion according to a government circular.
The context, outside the government’s hands
These parameters are not policy choices.
Debt year by year
In % of GDP, starting from the end-2025 figure.
- 8 paths out of 10
- Half of the paths
- Middle value
- Study reference (aid and effort)
- Example paths
- IMF, April 2026
- Fitch, May 2026
- World Bank
The institutions start from 79 to 81% of GDP for 2025, figures from before the audit. The gap with the 68.9% of the chosen start comes from the debt figure and the GDP each one uses.
The slope is therefore what to compare. From 2025 to 2030, the IMF sees the debt rise by 35 points. Here, the middle value rises by 23 points.
| Year | Middle value | 8 paths out of 10 | Above the ceiling | Interest (billion) | IMF, April 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.1% | 67–82% | 77% | 488 | 86.1% |
| 2027 | 79.0% | 63–100% | 75% | 666 | 94.3% |
| 2028 | 83.9% | 59–116% | 75% | 761 | 102.1% |
| 2029 | 88.1% | 56–132% | 75% | 846 | 108.0% |
| 2030 | 91.9% | 50–150% | 74% | 926 | 114.3% |
Read before using these figures. This is a tool to compare choices, not a forecast. The bands cover only the simulated shocks, not errors in the data or future decisions. By default the model ignores the effect of fiscal effort on growth (the “Effect on growth” slider adds it) and its social costs, and it assumes lenders follow. The draws on this page are not exactly those of the study: the middle value can differ by a few tenths of a point.