Work

Work, organized by the question asked.

Hodologic is defined by its methods, not by an industry. Projects are grouped by the kind of problem they solve, and each one states what its results rest on.

The GIA platform: dossiers and a layer stack beside a map of Gabon with roads coloured by load

Measure · Decide · Case study

GIA · Gabon Infrastructure Assets

A geospatial decision-support platform for infrastructure planning in Gabon.

Some fifty open layers on one common base, and reproducible indicators for diagnosis, prioritisation and vigilance. Built end to end by Hodologic, and documented in a research paper.

90.7%

of the population lives within one hour of a mapped health facility. 327,232 people live beyond it.

46.1%

of those beyond one hour would be covered by five well-placed centres: 150,811 people.

45.7%

of the population depends on a single road link to reach any facility.

1 → 39%

One per cent of road kilometres carries 39% of through journeys, across 63,091 km.

Read with253 facilities mapped in OpenStreetMap, 218 of them in Estuaire and none in Nyanga. The figures measure what the map carries, not access to care on the ground.

Le Kiosque: the assistant beside a semantic map of the Gabonese press, each point an article
Le KiosqueThe assistant beside the semantic map: each point is an article, and nearby points cover similar subjects.

Understand · Measure · Case study

Le Kiosque · Reading the Gabonese press

Ask a question in French, get a dated synthesis in which every claim links to its article.

Thirteen newsrooms collected daily, 20,857 articles, and five legal codes, queryable through retrieval that knows news is perishable. It runs on one machine with open-source models, and never answers from the model's memory.

Corpus
20,857 articles, 13 newsrooms
Law
1,502 articles, 5 codes
Method
Temporal retrieval-augmented generation
Freshest coverage reached
12/12 questions, from 3/12
Read the case study

Research · In-house project

EdgeQuant · Forecasting and decisions in betting markets

Betting markets are a fast, unforgiving test of probabilistic forecasts. Every prediction has a price, and every outcome is known within days.

EdgeQuant is our test bed for turning forecasts into decisions under uncertainty. It combines model predictions, tipster consensus and live odds, keeps only selections with a measurable edge, and builds portfolios of bets with Markowitz optimization and fractional Kelly sizing. Monte Carlo simulation shows the range of capital paths and drawdowns before any stake is placed.

Data
39,000+ historical matches
Allocation
Markowitz, fractional Kelly
Risk
Monte Carlo, drawdown analysis
Validation
Brier score, closing line value, backtests
Open the app
0%3%5%8%10%0%5%10%15%20%Risk (standard deviation) →Expected returnMIN VARIANCEMAX SHARPEEFFICIENT FRONTIER
Fig. 4Each point is a possible portfolio of five bets. The frontier marks the best expected return for each level of risk. Illustrative figures.

Problem types

Six kinds of question.

Projects are attached to the problem they solve. Categories without a published project yet still describe work we take on.

Predict

Building models to anticipate future outcomes.

Forecasting · Probabilistic models

Optimize

Finding better choices under constraints.

Operations research · ConstraintsEdgeQuant

Understand

Identifying the mechanisms driving observed outcomes.

Causal inference · MechanismsLe Kiosque

Simulate

Exploring what may happen under alternative assumptions.

Scenarios · Agent-based models

Measure

Turning complex phenomena into meaningful indicators.

Indicators · Measurement designGIA

Decide

Designing analytical systems that support choices.

Decision analysis · Support systemsGIA

Across domains

Defined by method. Applied wherever the problem is.

Our methods apply wherever complex data, models and decisions meet. The same forecasting, simulation or decision analysis can serve very different sectors.

Infrastructure planning · GIAAccess to healthcare · GIAMedia and public information · Le KiosqueLaw · Le KiosqueBetting markets · EdgeQuant, research